SASE 2005: Abstracts Network L

Abstracts Network L - Rethinking the Welfare State

Samuel Amaral (Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero, Argentina)
E-Mail address: samaral@untref.edu.ar
Peronism and the Working Class: Problems and Debates

For decades it has been accepted by social scientists that Peronism enjoyed the support of the working class. Recent literature suggests that for Peronism to be born more than the working class was necessary. My paper analyzes the current debates and offers new views on the problem.

Christine Andre (PSE-CEPREMAP, France)
E-Mail address: christine.andre@cepremap.cnrs.fr
Toward a Lesser Differentiation of the European Health Systems for the Last Twenty Years?

The question of lasting differences between systems of social protection in the European Union gives rise to a lot of debates and proposals. How is it possible, concerning health systems, to compare their evolutions since 1980 and to appraise a possible convergence? As to health expenditures, different ways of measuring their evolution reveal some kind of stabilization or of convergence, and this trend is much clearer than for other social risks. Typologies of health systems are also built for 1980 and for 2000 on the basis of several types of variables, using a principal component analysis. The comparison of these typologies both shows changes between 1980 and 2000 and a lesser differentiation between clusters for the recent years. Fixed effects models, using cross-national and time-series data, allow us to identify the factors at the origin of the differences between clusters. Moreover, such models are also used to show that there is a turn at the beginning of the 1990s relatively to the variables playing a major role in the growth of expenditures. The examination of implemented reforms confirms the common orientations taking part in convergence at a global level and also helps understanding the relative evolution of countries and clusters.

Paul Bernard (Universite de Montreal, Canada)
Guillaume Boucher (Universite de Montreal, Canada)
E-Mail address: paul.bernard@umontreal.ca; guillaume.bouher@umontreal.ca
Examining Regimes and Pillars with LIS Data

We have worked, over the last few years, on comparisons of advanced societies (mostly OECD countries) using quantitative social indicators and clustering methods, such as Hierarchical classification analysis and Factorial analysis of correspondence.. We now want to use the Luxemburg Income Study data to generate indicators of welfare regimes and pillars, to use Goodin and Rein's (2001) distinction. Regimes correspond to who gets what (what families, with what labor force participation, get which income), and pillars correspond to who pays for it and delivers it (what families, at various levels of income, get how much from employment, self-employment, occupational pensions, social insurance, social transfers, private transfers, etc.). We want to use these data to broach the issue of the convergence between the regimes of OECD countries under the pressures of globalization. We also want to ascertain whether countries would converge toward a dualized welfare state, which Abrahamson defines as "a fairly generous one organized on market principles for the majority of skilled and educated workers, and a local, predominantly public welfare state for the marginalized segments of the population".

Nicole F. Bernier (Université de Montréal, Canada)
E-Mail address: nf.bernier@umontreal.ca
Sub-national Contexts for Calculation, Representation and Association: Canadian Policy Approaches to Public Health

The SARS outbreak paralyzed the city of Toronto for several weeks in 2002-2003 and exposed a global vulnerability to public health disasters worldwide. As a result, Canada's public health infrastructure has been brought under close scrutiny; in addition, this largely neglected, but essential component of the welfare state is currently being renewed. My paper shows the results of an empirical research comparing three Canadian provinces' approaches to public health in general, and to population health promotion in particular, from the mid-1990s. Observations comprise the recent evolution of public health's organizational, legislative and programmatic structure. Data was collected drawing from official publications and specialized literature as well as 20 interviews with policy-makers conducted throughout Canada in 2004. The results indicate a great differentiation of policy approaches, social scope and recent trajectories of provincial policies. Provincial divergence appears paradoxical given that the provinces evolve in a common legislative and budgetary framework (federalism). It is best understood in relation to the highly differentiated administrative structures found at the subnational level. Such structures represent the context for calculation, representation and association among the players that shape the various policy approaches to ensuring the population's health.

Sonia Miriam Draibe (UNICAMP, Brazil)
Manuel Riesco (CENDA, Chile)
E-Mail addresses: smdraibe@uol.com.br; mriesco@cep.cl
Latin America: A New Developmental Welfare State in the Making?

The paper focuses on the development of the Latin America Welfare States. Drawing on long time series of empirical data, concerning select countries (Argentine, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Cuba, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay), it reviews the evolution of the regional social policies systems, emphasizing the different historical configurations and welfare regimes, as well its changing conditions, and institutional legacies that may favor or limit the creation of a new inclusive, pattern of development. The nuclear concept is that one of Latin American Developmental Welfare State (LADWS), a peculiar form of developmental welfare state which played, in the period 1930-1980, a strategic role in the process of industrialization of Latin America countries, favoring the incorporation of masses of peasants to the dynamics and structures of urban market economies. Since the 1980s, in the framework of globalization and pro-market reforms, substantial alterations have promoted the transformation of LADWS and a new pattern of socio-economic development. Pointing out the success and limits of both moments, the paper explores the possibilities of the emergence, in the XXI Century, of a Neo-Developmental Latin America Welfare State, supporting by new pro-growth and progressive democratic coalitions.

Heikki Ervasti (University of Turku, Finland)
E-Mail address: heikki.ervasti@utu.fi
Polarization in The Welfare State? Attitudes of the Finnish General Public Toward Unemployment and The Unemployed

For decades, social policy analysts have warned about the possible polarization of the population as a cause of high and persisting levels of unemployment. According to the polarization hypothesis Western societies would be divided into two segments; one consisting of unemployed and socially marginalized people and the other of gainfully employed and well-off groups who show declining solidarity toward the former segment. This paper tests the polarization hypothesis by analyzing public attitudes toward unemployment, unemployment policies and the unemployed in Finland. The empirical data is derived from a recent survey representative of the total Finnish population (N=1895). The results show that there are some weak signs of polarization. Those with the highest levels of economic well-being, subjective class identification, little experience of unemployment and a right-wing political orientation show the least solidarity toward the unemployed and the strongest support for supply side labor market policies. Overall, nonetheless, the results do not support evidence for a strong polarization of the Finnish society; it seems that the social structure is far more complex than the polarization hypothesis implies.

Frederic Gannon (University of Paris X - University Le Havre, France)
Philippe Abecassis (University of Paris X - University Le Havre, France)
Philippe Batifoulier (University of Paris X - University Le Havre, France)
Isabelle Bilon (University of Paris X - University Le Havre, France)
Bénédicte Martin (University of Paris X - University Le Havre, France)
E-Mail address: frederic.gannon@wanadoo.fr; philippe.abecassis@univ-angers.fr; philippe.batifoulier@u-paris10.fr; isabelle.bilon@u-paris10.fr; benedicteMartin@aol.com
Evolution of the French Health System and Evolution of the Behaviors' Legitimacy: A Textual Analysis

Reforms of the various European health systems all imply the introduction of competition mechanisms within a previously non-liberal welfare regime. In France, particularly, the development of the free precaution principles and complementary mechanisms goes hand in hand with an increasing intervention of the State. The seemingly paradoxical nature of this evolution vanishes under the assumption of a liberal State. Our hypothesis is that public intervention in the health sector refers more and more explicitly to a market-based frame. We try to show that new behaviors appear in time, and that they follow rather liberal guidelines, acknowledged as "legitimate" by the concerned actors. The "theory of justification" (Boltanski and Thévenot) will be used to build taxonomy of the argumentations in the setting-up of conventions. Each convention lies on a proper conception of what is "Right" and what is not, in order to define what is correct, good or legitimate according to the situation. The basic idea adopted in our work is to locate these conventions in the protagonists' official speech. To do this, we locate the justifications within various official texts by examining carefully the words that are used and their evolution with time. In effect, we assume (reasonably) that words used by the actors of the health system may reveal their underlying principles. The main objective of this paper consists, then, to identify and analyze the language of the "commodification" in the official speeches. The ALCESTE software will be used to analyze a database of influential texts (for the last 20 years), whether deontological ones (codes and oaths), journalistic ones (daily general newspapers), and official or parliamentary reports ones.

Martin Giraudeau (Universite Toulouse 2, France)
E-Mail address: giraudeau@univ-tlse2.fr
The Fabrication of Entrepreneurs: French State Support to the Unemployed Who Create Firms

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the part played by state services in the process of business formation in France. Our inquiry focuses on the state support destined to unemployed entrepreneurs, through interviews with public actors and entrepreneurs, in situ observations, and the analysis of more than 5OO business plans asking for such support. We first study the evolution of state support to unemployed entrepreneurs since its emergence (1979), showing the growing variety of public devices and organizations meant to enforce this policy. Yet, whatever the organization or device, the selection of deserving entrepreneurs remains based on social appraisals of the individuals rather than on economic evaluations of the nascent firms. However, we then show that state support passes less by the selection of deserving entrepreneurs than by the education of all those who ask for support. This education is entirely devoted to the completion of a proper business plan according to state defined planning standards, and imposing preparatory tasks of market anticipation as well as managerial and financial planning. These standards act as a powerful frame on entrepreneurial practices, and therefore enforce a specific conception of entrepreneurship.

Tania Gosselin (Central European University, Hungary)
E-Mail address: pphgos01@phd.ceu.hu
The Determinants of Local Social Assistance Spending in Hungary, 1996-2002

Since the early 1990s, fiscal decentralization in Hungary has brought to the local level, along with legislative powers and the ability to raise revenues, a number of tasks such as the provision of social assistance and welfare programs. Literature on decentralization reforms has highlighted significant variations in local governments spending on social assistance benefits. Some go as far as to claim that there are as many different social assistance schemes as local governments - which number more than 3,100. The paper proposes an empirical analysis of the sources of variations in local social assistance across Hungarian localities between 1996 and 2002. In addition to economic factors such as local resources (local government and/or community wealth) and unemployment that usually constitute the focal point of studies of welfare, the research evaluates the role of political factors (local turnout; mayor/assembly partisanship, electoral competition), as well as other features of localities (NGO presence; local Roma minority self-government; size; and rural/urban character) in determining social assistance spending. The analysis draws on detailed socio-demographic and budget data about localities, as well as information gathered in the framework of a survey conducted with chief administrative officers in more than 600 Hungarian localities in 2001.

Scott Greer (University College London, United Kingdom)
E-Mail address: s.greer@ucl.ac.uk
Uninvited Europeanization: Law and Authority Migration in Health Policy

Member states have carefully isolated health services and policy from the European Union since its inception, granting only narrow responsibilities and weak tools relevant to marginal areas of policy. Yet today the EU is emerging as one of the formative influences in health policy. The activities of EU institutions in areas outside health, both legislative and judicial, have had unexpected consequences for health by changing the legal environment under which health systems contract employees, purchase goods, finance services, and organize themselves. This pattern of judicially driven EU involvement in the forbidden field of health has led to the first steps in the creation of a Europe level health policy arena and has created especially severe problems for devolved health systems that suddenly must develop EU representation in order to sustain their policy autonomy. Neofunctionalism in other words lives on in health policy: while there are many ways in which the theory of Haas has become obsolescent, it still provides a convincing explanation of the expansion of EU competencies, as shown above all by the ongoing, unintended, development of a European health policy and its important consequences for the UK (and other) health politics and policies.

Joel F. Handler (University of California Los Angeles, USA)
Amanda Sheely Babcock (University of California Los Angeles, USA)
E-Mail address: handler@law.ucla.edu
Evaluating Welfare Reform: The Importance of Perspective

The Wisconsin Works (W-2) program is one of the most influential welfare programs in the world, shaping policy in the United States and Western Europe. As Lawrence Mead states, the W-2 program "struck the most telling blow against family poverty that government has managed in forty years of struggle" (p. iv). However, Jason DeParle presents another view of W-2 gained by interviewing recipients and case managers and by observing welfare offices. DeParle documents overworked case managers, recipients not receiving adequate services, and private agencies using welfare funding for promotions (e.g., tee shirts, golf balls, entertainment). This paper will explore how assessments of a program can differ dramatically depending on whether they are based on the perspective of officials or that of recipients. We will contrast the Mead and DeParle's visions of W-2 to demonstrate the inadequacy of traditional measures, including performance-based measures and auditing, in evaluating welfare-to-work programs. The paper documents how contracting encourages politicians and private agencies to ignore potential inadequacies in programs. Lastly, the paper will highlight the need to adopt nontraditional methods, including observation and interviews with recipients, to gain a comprehensive view of any welfare program.

Chris Hector (University of Waikato, New Zealand)
Email Address: chector@waikato.ac.nz
Equity and Efficiency: The Real Trade-off

Prior to the late twentieth century it was assumed without question that the advancement of productive efficiency was fueled by inequality. If equitable distribution of the benefits of growth was a desirable social goal, it followed that there was an "equality efficiency trade-off" as Okun (1975) expressed it. However numerous studies over the last 30 years have found lower inequality associated with stronger growth rather than weaker. But rejecting Okun's trade-off does not necessarily imply that every effort to lower inequality will be cost-effective. Inequality is best viewed as a bad, like pollution or other environmental bads, which are costly to reduce and cannot be totally eliminated. Efficiency will be maximized when the marginal cost of further reducing inequality, in the form of the negative side effects of taxation and redistribution, equals the marginal benefit of that reduction in terms of growth promoting egalitarianism. The challenge for public policy is therefore not so much a trade off between a social safety net and efficiency, as how to make the most cost effective use of redistributive taxation. Redistribution is essential, but will achieve the most if it targets facilitative investments such as education, which reduce inequality of opportunity. Policies which merely provide a safety net are unlikely to do long term good, and may well trap the disadvantaged into continuing dependence.

Alma Idiart (CONICET, Argentina)
E-Mail address: aidiart@emory.edu
Decentralization Processes and The Transformations of Infant-Maternity Nutritional Programs in Argentina During the Last Decade

This paper centers on the decentralizing dimension affecting IMPs in Argentina. It will analyze both the long-term institutional features of these programs and the decentralizing trends organizing their reforms along neo-liberal lines prevailing in Argentina during the 1990s. Argentina's Federal organization requires a decentralized execution of federal social programs. This decentralized execution of traditional IMPs, however, contrasts with the insufficient institutional capacities of IMPs at the national level for regulating and/or monitoring effective program implementation at the local levels. During the 1990s, several attempts and initiatives to increase program regulation by the national level resulted in a relatively improved controlling capacity of the Traditional IMP, though after a decade of reform implementation, its monitoring capacity is still very low. The modern, managerial IMP organized in the early 1990s (PROMIN), pointed at improving program regulatory and monitoring mechanisms, while emphasizing decentralization aspects. Effective implementation of PROMIN's programmatic goals has been neither smooth nor easy. In fact, pervasive traditional procedures developed by the provincial units as well as local political changes and discontinuities have attempted against an efficient program implementation within a decentralized organization. This situation is not characteristic of PROMIN, but of the social policy organizations in Argentina in general.

Ollli Kangas (Danish Istitute for Social Research, Denmark)
Joakim Palme (Swedish Institute for Future Studies)
E-Mail address: olk@sfi.dk; joakim.palme@framtidsstudier.se
Social Rights, Structural Needs and Social Expenditures: A Comparative Study of 18 OECD Countries 1960-2000

The fact that comparative research on the welfare state has not distinguished between the effects of rights and needs on the growth of public social expenditures has contributed to the persisting controversies in welfare state research. Moreover, severe measurement problems when it comes to social expenditure data have added to the confusion. This paper analyses the relative importance of structural needs and social rights for explaining variation in social expenditures in 18 OECD countries 1960/1980-2000. It is found that rights and needs contribute to variation in total expenditures to about the same degree. If we look at expenditures on specific social security programs, the quality of social rights is sometimes more important than the size of the needy population (as with child allowances) whereas needs are more important in other areas (such as the unemployment insurance). The measurement issues are important for the outcomes when it comes to rights vs. needs, and presumably when it comes to the political factors behind cross-national variation in expenditure levels.

Lane Kenworthy (University of Arizona, USA)
E-Mail address: lane.kenworthy@arizona.edu
More Targeting, Less Universalism? Social Policy in the Postindustrial Age

This paper explores: (1) the extent to which the decline of manufacturing and rise of services in affluent countries is, in concert with other changes, contributing to a shift toward greater targeting in transfer programs; (2) what implications this shift may have for redistribution. Have countries moved toward targeting? Have targeted programs suffered sharper cutbacks, as is often expected? Have countries that rely more heavily on targeted programs retrenched more severely? Has redistribution decreased in countries that rely more heavily on targeted programs? Is it still the case that targeting-oriented welfare states achieve less redistribution? I focus on developments in twelve affluent OECD countries since the mid-to-late 1970s. Four are "Nordic" countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Four are "continental": France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. And four are "Anglo" (English-speaking): Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Hannah Kiiver (Utrecht School of Economics, The Netherlands)
Bas van Groezen (Utrecht School of Economics, The Netherlands)
Brigitte Unger (Utrecht School of Economics, The Netherlands)
E-Mail address: h.kiiver@econ.uu.nl; b.vangroezen@econ.uu.nl; b.unger@econ.uu.nl
Pension Systems in Europe: One For All?

Ageing populations have urged many countries to reconsider existing welfare state arrangements. The issue of pension reform is therefore high on the political agenda. While it is undisputed in the economic literature that a move toward more privately financed pension systems is welfare-improving, some (Pemberton, 2000) argue that individual countries can only gain from joint privatization. In this research we want to analyze whether coordination of pension policies in the EU is politically feasible and economically sensible. Specifically, we want to investigate whether the opinions of citizens about the role of the government, the way of financing pensions and the way of dealing with the ageing problem differ significantly in different countries, or whether there are certain characteristics (e.g. age) that influence the preference of citizens for a specific pension policy independent of nationality. Using multivariate profit analysis we find that pension preferences are to a great extent state-dependent, i.e. existing systems in a country seem to be more important than characteristics. This suggests that policy coordination might be difficult and come at high social costs; for individual countries, it suggests that the low speed of reforms might be due to the preference for current policies.

Mariane Campelo Koslinski (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
E-Mail address: marianecampelo@ifcs.ufrj.br
New Forms of Civil Society Organization and The State: A Preliminary Study of the Impact of NGOs on Participation and State Resources Distribution

Despite the revival of the concept of civil society in the social sciences agenda, specially from the 80s on, a wide range of studies differ in their assessment of the impact of civil society organizations on pluralist representation of interests and on social welfare policies implementation. This paper starts from this discussion and focuses on the analysis of a specific manifestation of civil society - the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). As these organizations do not represent specific or well-defined constituencies and many of them claim to represent the same social groups, we pose the following question: What are the predominant characteristics of the NGOs that reach greater access to the State participation channels and resources? More specifically, what interests or issues do they represent? Who participates in their decision-making processes? To whom they establish partnerships and dialogue? How open are they to participatory practices? Based on a questionnaire applied to a sample of approximately 300 NGOs settled in Brazil the preliminary conclusions of this investigation suggest that NGOs that have more access to State inter-mediation channels and resources are those representing interests traditionally contemplated by the State rather than those presenting a more decentralized and participatory profile.

John Mehrtens (University of Nevada - Las Vegas, USA)
E-Mail address: john.mehrtens@ccmail.nevada.edu
Some Have More Class Than Others: A Cross-National Theory of Political Socialization

As part of a larger project which attempts to come to terms with the effect of cross-national differences in public opinion on the well documented variation in social policy among advanced capitalist democracies, previous research indicates that 1) questions of broad ideology, rather than specific policy, are the ones that "matter" in terms of shaping social policy variation, and 2) derived as a theoretical alternative to an economic rationality-based approach to preference formation, social class plays an important, and in fact stronger, role in the causal process. This paper endeavors to expand upon these findings by developing and testing a theory of the way class differentially affects the political socialization process between countries. Specifically, social class has a much more profound impact in some countries than in others due to a number of historical contingencies at the national level. Regression results indicate that country-level historical context plays a significant role in shaping survey responses and that social class varies among countries in its effect on preference formation.

David Natali (Observatoire Social Européen, Belgium)
E-Mail address: natali@ose.be
Families on the Move: Reformed Pension Systems within the Enlarged EU

The present article focuses on recent pension reforms in the enlarged European Union. Its main aim is to improve the knowledge of the nature of the reform process, and its outcomes. Two lines of argument are developed. The first one concerns a new classification of pension families. While the literature has widely accepted the definition of two 'worlds' of pensions (social insurance vs. multi-pillar systems), the article proposes a more complex classification. By the analysis of the institutional design of pension programs (in terms of pillars and tiers), I define four different families of pension systems in the EU at 25. These clusters are the result of the long-term evolution of old-age programs. The second argument is then related to the nature of the process of innovation: does it represent a convergence or a persistent divergence? The article shows that both convergent and divergent trends coexist. Policy-makers have shared similar policy aims, and pension systems are characterized by some common traits. But, the impact of past institutions has led to a persistent difference of institutional architectures between European countries (both between 'old' and 'new' EU members).

Kristian Orsini (KU Leuven, Belgium)
E-Mail address: kristian.orsini@econ.kuleuven.ac.be
Efficient Policy Design: In Work Benefits in Europe

Poverty and inactivity traps have long been held responsible for the poor employment performance of EU countries. Making-work-pay policies, consisting of transfers to individuals or households with low earning capacity, have quickly emerged as the most politically acceptable instruments of tax-benefit reforms in Britain as well as in Continental Europe. Using EUROMOD and a structural model of female labor supply, this paper explores the potential impact on income distribution and social inclusion of a family based in work benefit and of an individualized low wage subsidy. The reforms are simulated in Finland, France and Germany. Both reforms are shown to have very high efficiency costs measured as the cost per household out of poverty, while only the low wage subsidy may realistically be expected to have a positive effect on employment, given the negative bias of household level means testing on secondary earners. On the other hand the household measure has a slightly stronger impact on poverty reduction. Differences across countries, nevertheless, remain significant and a ranking of the two alternatives is dependant on each country's social welfare function and the priority assigned to particular social groups showing high risk of poverty and social exclusion.

Birgit Pfau-Effinger (University of Hamburg, Germany)
E-Mail address: pfau-effinger@sozialwiss.uni-hamburg.de
Culture and Path Dependence of Welfare State Development

The impact of processes like EU-integration and globalization on the development of European welfare states is a contested issue. Often it is argued that welfare state policies do not converge but follow different development paths in the ways they adapt to the new challenges. However, the concept of 'path dependence' which is often used for analyses is problematic. It is not really adequate for analyses of the complex - and often contradictory - processes of continuity and breaks in processes of restructuring of welfare states. Also, it is often based on the assumption of rational actors and institutions and does not sufficiently take the role of cultural values for the way change takes place into account. The paper discusses how the concept of 'path dependency' could be further developed by the inclusion of culture into analyses of the restructuring of welfare arrangements in Europe. It suggests interpreting the restructuring as a process in which the development of ideas, interests and institutions interacts in complex and often contradictory ways.

Till Muller-Schoell (Max Planck Institute For The Study Of Societies Cologne, Germany)
E-Mail address: tms@mpifg.de
Three Ways of Coping With the Growing Effects of Wage Compression in the Contribution Based Welfare States of Germany, France and Austria

The end of the post-war Fordist growth dynamic led to a new trilemma for contribution based welfare states: inclusion in the social security system, wage compression and full employment were no longer compatible. Empirically, the reaction to this challenge was not uniform in the cases of Germany, Austria and France. Austria neglected wage compression. France, like Germany, started with growing problems in employment, but soon looked to wage-subsidies and tax funding instead of contributions to limit the negative effects of wage compression on employment. Germany accepted its social security system becoming less inclusive. These three reactions to the trilemma can be explained by the sequence and logic of institutional change with respect to the limits of mandatory social security contributions. If full inclusion into the social security system was accomplished before the trilemma created employment problems, exclusion was no longer available as an option for adjustment. Union policies and strength are crucial factors behind timing and sequence of institutional change. Whereas the French government could act unilaterally and the Austrian government could find a coordinated solution, German unions were too weak to make strategic concessions while still strong enough to defend the particularistic interests of their clienteles.

Dzmitry Sokal (Belarusian State Economic University, Belarus)
E-Mail address: disok@tut.by
Disparity in Ability and Authority of Local Budgets Governance in Belarus

In the beginning 90 years, local authorities (Councils) in Eastern Europe, also in Belarus, was transformed into local self-governments (communities). The estimate financing has caused indifference of the local authorities to the economic and financial activities. There was no incentive to optimize expenditure. At the end it led to dependence of local authorities. According to the legislation the local budgets are components of the Central or Republican budget, and both their revenue and expenditure side are regulated by Budget Laws on each fiscal year in Belarus. The budget independence is guaranteed by the right of appropriate state bodies to draw, consider, adopt the budget autonomously. However, if we try to formalize all ministerial procedures of this budget process we will see that independence is not so obvious. The methods of financial equalization in Belarus haven't changed from times of the Soviet Union. The object of equalization is an expenditure on non-profit sphere or infrastructure. It is the simple method of vertical equalization of consumption levels in regions and municipalities. In essence we can characterize budgetary process in Belarus as strongly centralized and mostly peculiar to the economy of command type. Certainly it has advantages that help to manage the social and economic stabilization during transitional period. However such model of budgetary process is unpromising for policy of economic growth due to the fact of its retrospective character and oppression of initiative in regions. Should equalization system be transparent and objective (balanced fiscal potentials and needs of sub-national governments) or be an instrument of political and economic Center's influence? We also intended to estimate a degree of local budgets independence, and also results and prospects of fiscal decentralization reform in Belarus. Is there a potential in development of the local budgetary process model in Belarus?

Elisabeth Springler (Austrian Central Bank, Austria)
E-Mail address: elisabeth.springler@wu-wien.ac.at
Housing Subsidies in Austria: Which Concept Serves Urban Development and Income Re-distribution Best?

Ever since the concept of housing subsidies has been restructured in the 90s and was moved into the responsibility of Austria's federal states the discussion about the effectiveness of the various systems has not stopped. The primary point of discussion is the social contribution of the two contrasting approaches: the approach based on the individual's income that means basing the contribution on the "subject" and the approach that supports construction and reconstruction of housing - the "object" - directly. Contrasting the analyses conducted so far, this paper will not directly measure the income redistribution effects of these two concepts to account for their social contribution, but chooses an indirect approach. The paper looks at the effects on urban development and analyses the impact of social transfers on lower and middle income classes. Does a "poverty gap" for the lower middle class exist? Empirical evidence is taken from "lower Austria", a federal state which claims to have introduced a system especially promoting income re-distribution basing on the "subject" approach.

Maria Hermania Tavares de Almeida (University of San Paulo, Brazil)
E-Mail address: mariaher@uol.com.br
How Poor and How Hungry? Information, Politics and Political Rhetoric in the Making of Brazilian Social Policies Agenda

Technical expertise and sound information on social conditions have always been considered important components in defining policy agendas and designing social policies. Nevertheless, they are far from accounting for policy choices. The paper analyzes the process through which targeted cash transfer programs became an important component of Brazilian social policies, in the last 10 years. It explores the different ways through which information on poverty produced by governmental statistics offices, university researchers and international organizations has been processed by different political actors and translated into different policy agendas and policy blueprints to cope with extreme poverty, in democratic Brazil. The paper shows that there is a political struggle around what poverty is about and which information is sound. If socioeconomic ideas are powerful -- and epistemic communities are important-- in the building of social policy agendas, their relation to information is complex and mediated by political competition.

J. Samuel Valenzuela (University of Notre Dame, USA)
E-Mail address: valenzuela.1@nd.edu
The Inadequate Development of Welfare Institutions in Chile

The paper examines the formation and development of Chilean welfare institutions since the 1920s. It argues that such institutions were ill conceived given that they were predicated on the existence of ideal models of the family (with a male breadwinner employed for life). Moreover, key aspects such as child care and unemployment protection were organized in such a way that they produced variable costs for the micro economic environment of firms, leading employers to try to avoid such costs by not hiring women and by firing employees before they accumulated sufficient seniority to cash in on benefits. Despite the transformations of welfare institutions since the military regime, many of these inadequacies persist or have even been exacerbated. To correct them, the Chilean state has begun a process of filling in the lacunae with new programs, leading to a sort of creeping universalism whose cost will escalate rapidly in the next decades. And yet without a fundamental redesign of welfare institutions labor market irrationalities, gender discrimination, and lacunae in pension coverage cannot be overcome.

Ricardo Basilio Weber (Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil)
E-Mail address: ricardoweber@terra.com.br
Elections in Hard Times: The Reelection of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso in 1998 and the management of the Economic Crisis

Peter Gourevitch (Politics in Hard Times) posits that great economic crises demand government measures (policies) to face the crises. However, those measures depend on the support of a political coalition. As long as there is synergy between politics and the policies adopted by the coalition in power, institutional changes in the macroeconomic scenario must come up. This work analyses the outstanding Economic Crisis of 1998/1999 in Brazil, which coincided with the presidential reelection of president Cardoso with 53% of preference and the broaden of his political base in Congress, despite the dramatic events. However, the achievement of reelection was an interesting process: along with the campaign, Mr. Cardoso had to manage a great crisis -that came from Russia (contagium) and hit Brazil- made worse by the internal problems of Brazilian Economy (exchange-rate, Real, Inflation). If it was not an U$ 41,5 billion aid-package from the IMF - issued before the elections- and the government resistance to devalue the currency, against the advice of IMF, Mr. Cardoso would not have been elected as the expanding crisis was mounting. We also analyze how Brazilian Press omitted the crisis during the campaign, taking part in the government's winning coalition in power.